Negative Convexity

Sign in Subscribe

Akash Kanojia

Fedwatching: Data update, FOMC matrix for the 31 Jan 2024 meeting

Thoughts on the upcoming Fed meeting and recent data releases * There won't be any movement on interest rates at tomorrow's Fed meeting--which should be a snoozer--but Friday's jobs data will draw a lot of attention. A strong jobs report pushes the prospect of rate

The feeling of being trapped by your job

Meet Burt (names changed to protect the innocent) Burt is a software engineer, male, mid-30s, worked both in bigtech and startups. In his 20s he joined a Series A technology startup in a high cost-of-living (HCOL) area. Most of his compensation was in the form of stock options, but the

Waller and Bostic on the Outlook (16 Jan 2024, 18 Jan 2024)

Fed Governor Waller and Atlanta Fed President Bostic gave speeches on the economic outlook last week. They highlighted similar themes--the positive progress on inflation so far, the uncertainty surrounding economic forecasts, and the conditions under which rate cuts could begin this year. I read Waller to be somewhat more hawkish

Where do negative self-beliefs about money come from?

One thing I hear often when I talk to people who feel blocked in finances are negative self-beliefs. These usually sound like "I'm not good with money," "I'm not good at math," "I'm not good with numbers." In

Fedwatching: Williams on the Outlook (Jan 11 2024)

New York Fed President John Williams spoke to an economic development group yesterday about the economic outlook. Here are my takeaways: * Williams won't be voting for rate cuts anytime soon. In his view, it won't be appropriate to cut rates until he is "confident that

The Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes, Barkin’s Speech, and the Interest Rate Outlook for 2024

A new year, a new monetary policy update. A lot of people have been asking me “when” interest rates will return to “normal” levels rather than the “high” levels they are currently at (NB: interest rates are not high right now by historical standards). Everyone seems to think it’s

Understanding Business Write-Offs for Solopreneurs

Several people have recently mentioned to me that they don't have a good understanding of how "writing off" or "expensing" something to your business works, so I decided to put together a guide. This note is intended for people who are residents of the

So are electric vehicles a good buy or what?

TL;DR – electric vehicles are already cheaper than comparable gas cars when viewed from a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) perspective. If you are in the market for a new car and have been reluctant to consider an EV because of the price, do the math (or read this post)

How much should home prices fall based on recent changes in interest rates?

I wanted to do a bit of math to see how much home prices need to fall in order to meet affordability criteria in a higher interest rate regime. Partly it’s for personal interest, as I bought a house during the pandemic and I’m curious how much I’

The zombification of Corporate America

Over the past three weeks, there’s been a lot of discussion of duration-related mark-to-market losses, depositor flight, money market strains, and government interventions pertaining to the banking sector. What I haven’t seen a lot of discussion on is the traditional cause of banking crises: people or firms who