Negative Convexity | Markets, History, Decisions

Negative Convexity

Sign in Subscribe

Latest — Apr 28, 2026

Social Security Will Run Out of Money in 2033, and That’s Just the Beginning of Its Problems

Social Security's trust fund depletes in 2033, and even then the SSA's fertility and labor share assumptions are too optimistic. The hole is bigger than projected.

More issues

Did You Know Japanese Debt-to-GDP is Declining?

Japan's debt-to-GDP is falling as nominal GDP growth outpaces debt accumulation—the inflation regime finally working after 30 years of trying. But bondholders are accepting deeply negative real returns. Why doesn't the market believe inflation will persist?

Resisting Bullies Is Good for the Economy

Two historical episodes show what happens when Fed chairs face presidential pressure: Burns capitulated to Nixon and got stagflation. Eccles resisted Truman and won independence. Powell has chosen resistance. History suggests that's good for the economy.

Are a Bunch of Law Schools About to Shut Down?

I started digging into the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) a few days ago thinking I'd write about its impact on student loan markets. What I found instead was more interesting: a provision that could force the closure of many law schools, depending entirely on how the

How Long Can the Market Remain Irrational?

I've been underweight stocks since 2018, thinking valuations were too high. I was wrong. This is my analysis of what the Shiller CAPE ratio actually tells us about market timing—and what it doesn't. A painful lesson in the difference between valuation and timing, with 150 years of data.

Today’s 2.7% CPI Release Is Nothing to Celebrate

The market and the White House are celebrating today’s cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release, which came in at 2.7% annualized inflation from November 2024 to November 2025. However, I don’t see anything to celebrate. 2.7% Is Par for the Course for 2025—and That’

We Are Looking at a Hawkish FOMC that Won’t Cut in December

Fed funds futures overestimate December cut odds. Regional Fed presidents have turned hawkish after hearing inflation concerns from business leaders. Tariffs aren't transitory, and the Fed's suddenly worried about missing its 2% target for 5 years. Expect rates to hold.

U.S. Macro Thoughts 18-Aug-2025

U.S. macro update as of August 18, 2025: dollar depreciation, persistent trade deficits, a potentially dovish Fed, inverted yield curve, strong equities, and weak labor data amid inflation pressures. Political interference looms large. Markets are euphoric; fundamentals are not.