Negative Convexity (Page 11)

Negative Convexity

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FOMC Preview - February 2023 meeting

TL;DR – I believe the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% at the February 1 meeting. However, recent speeches by DC-based officials sound hawkish to me and I think 0.50% is still possible. Market pricing suggests the Fed will hike twice at the next two meetings—25 and

Fedwatching: Logan on the outlook (Jan 18 2023)

Some of you may know that my old boss from the New York Fed, Lorie Logan, recently became the new president of the Dallas Fed. Logan will be a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the body that sets the U.S. benchmark interest rate, in 2023.

ERCOT market design options—a summary of E3's November 2022 report

This note summarizes the “Assessment of Market Reform Options to Enhance Reliability of the ERCOT System,” a report commissioned by the PUCT from energy consulting firm E3 and released on November 10, 2022. The PUCT is currently seeking comments from the public on this report. Key Takeaways · All six of

Fedwatching: Gov. Waller on the outlook (May 30 2022)

Synopsis of Governor Waller's speech on May 30... - Sees overall economy as strong - Q1 contraction was due to inventories and net exports, and he doesn't expect that contraction to be repeated. Spending and business investment are still strong - Labor market remains strong. Creating

Allocating assets between taxable and non-taxable accounts

People have been asking me lately about whether there is any advantage to putting certain types of investments in taxable versus non-taxable accounts. Short answer: yes, there is. Here is a short post on how to think about sorting investments between types of accounts. We'll first discuss the

Andrew Huberman and Andy Gilpin's thoughts on hypertrophy

I love Andrew Huberman's podcast, but there's so much information there that I tend to get lost. Just for my own use, I decided to summarize his ideas on various topics. This post is on hypertrophy. Everything here is based on Huberman's conversation with

How government policy and markets benefit homeowners

I had a long conversation last night with a friend regarding why she should buy a house. Obviously everyone's situation is different, but I want to list out a number of deliberate U.S. policy decisions that make homebuying advantageous for people with steady jobs. The U.S.