7 Macro Trends I’m Watching and Their Impact on Inflation
We're facing an inflationary future--demographic decline, climate change, and rising debt will overwhelm the deflationary impact of AI and robotics.
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So how about that rate cut?
TL;DR – I don’t expect the Fed will make any change to interest rates before the election.
I’ve been saying for a while that people baking in three rate cuts this year are engaged in wishful thinking, and that the risk that we won’t get even one
5 Questions (and 9 charts) on the current state of the U.S. housing market
Several Fed officials have referred to the role of rent increases in the overall inflation picture. There’s also a lot of uncertainty in home purchase markets, what with the direction of inflation as well as the impact of higher rates. Some people say there’s a housing shortage; others
Fedwatching: Some thoughts on yesterday's CPI report
Yesterday's CPI report came in higher than expected at 3.1% annualized through January, prompting a selloff in stocks and bonds. Stocks were down ~1.5% and bond interest rates climbed ~0.10-20%, concentrated in the 3-5 year range.
Overall, I interpret this report as a warning sign